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Here's a column that will appear in Tuesday's Star...
NASCAR’s playoff system is sort of growing on me.
Growing up near Darlington, I’m something of a NASCAR traditionalist. That means I fear and am naturally opposed to change.
So when NASCAR unveiled the "Race for the Chase" format, I was skeptical. But the more I think about it, the more I like it.
Under the old format, this season would be over. Tony Stewart has a 213-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, and there’s no way he’ll back up that much in 12 races.
As it stands now, he’ll be just one of 10 drivers in a 10-race sprint for the championship. Stewart, Johnson, Greg Biffle and Rusty Wallace officially have spots locked up and Mark Martin, Jeremy Mayfield and Kurt Busch seem like safe bets to get in as well.
It’s the last three spots that hold the drama.
Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are 8-10 right now, but Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Elliott Sadler, Dale Jarrett and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are all trying to slip in the door as well.
So with stops at California and Richmond left before the chase begins, who’s in and who’s out?
No shot
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of the sport’s biggest stars, but he’s 117 points out of 10th place right now. With average finishes of 28.3 at California and 5.7 at Richmond in his last three races at each track, he figures to loose too much ground this week to earn a spot in the final 10.
Dale Jarrett has 78 points to make up, and his average finishes aren’t good either (14.3 at California, 24.3 at Richmond). Maybe he could earn a few bonus points by actually driving the truck…
In the mix
Elliott Sadler has a win to his credit on the left coast, and his average finishes are 10.3 and 12, respectively. He’s only 34 points out, so he has a good chance if he can avoid trouble.
Jamie McMurray is 12 points out of the standings, and after narrowly missing the chase last year, he’s surely motivated to get in this time around. His averages are solid — 7 and 19 — and he doesn’t have much ground to make up.
The same is true of Matt Kenseth, who was simply dominating at Bristol on Saturday.
His averages aren’t great (17.3 and 15), but his four Roush teammates are looking good for the chase, so why not him?
The picks
Carl Edwards is currently eighth in the standings, and in his two races at each track, he’s fared well (5.5 and 13.5). He’s a Roush guy with a good record at these places, so I’m saving him a spot.
Ryan Newman has the best averages of this group, with a sterling 5.7 at California and a 10.7 at Richmond. He’s a great qualifier, which means he may avoid some of the trouble that often crops up towards the rear of the field.
My last pick defies logic, but the conspiracy theorist in me just won’t let me write off Jeff Gordon. His averages are brutal, with a 22.7 at California and a 16 in Richmond, but he has three wrecks figured in there.
I just can’t fathom a scenario in which neither Gordon nor Earnhardt Jr. makes the chase. So, I’m thinking that Gordon finds a way to hang on to 10th place.
Change is bad, remember?
NASCAR’s playoff system is sort of growing on me.
Growing up near Darlington, I’m something of a NASCAR traditionalist. That means I fear and am naturally opposed to change.
So when NASCAR unveiled the "Race for the Chase" format, I was skeptical. But the more I think about it, the more I like it.
Under the old format, this season would be over. Tony Stewart has a 213-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, and there’s no way he’ll back up that much in 12 races.
As it stands now, he’ll be just one of 10 drivers in a 10-race sprint for the championship. Stewart, Johnson, Greg Biffle and Rusty Wallace officially have spots locked up and Mark Martin, Jeremy Mayfield and Kurt Busch seem like safe bets to get in as well.
It’s the last three spots that hold the drama.
Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are 8-10 right now, but Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Elliott Sadler, Dale Jarrett and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are all trying to slip in the door as well.
So with stops at California and Richmond left before the chase begins, who’s in and who’s out?
No shot
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of the sport’s biggest stars, but he’s 117 points out of 10th place right now. With average finishes of 28.3 at California and 5.7 at Richmond in his last three races at each track, he figures to loose too much ground this week to earn a spot in the final 10.
Dale Jarrett has 78 points to make up, and his average finishes aren’t good either (14.3 at California, 24.3 at Richmond). Maybe he could earn a few bonus points by actually driving the truck…
In the mix
Elliott Sadler has a win to his credit on the left coast, and his average finishes are 10.3 and 12, respectively. He’s only 34 points out, so he has a good chance if he can avoid trouble.
Jamie McMurray is 12 points out of the standings, and after narrowly missing the chase last year, he’s surely motivated to get in this time around. His averages are solid — 7 and 19 — and he doesn’t have much ground to make up.
The same is true of Matt Kenseth, who was simply dominating at Bristol on Saturday.
His averages aren’t great (17.3 and 15), but his four Roush teammates are looking good for the chase, so why not him?
The picks
Carl Edwards is currently eighth in the standings, and in his two races at each track, he’s fared well (5.5 and 13.5). He’s a Roush guy with a good record at these places, so I’m saving him a spot.
Ryan Newman has the best averages of this group, with a sterling 5.7 at California and a 10.7 at Richmond. He’s a great qualifier, which means he may avoid some of the trouble that often crops up towards the rear of the field.
My last pick defies logic, but the conspiracy theorist in me just won’t let me write off Jeff Gordon. His averages are brutal, with a 22.7 at California and a 16 in Richmond, but he has three wrecks figured in there.
I just can’t fathom a scenario in which neither Gordon nor Earnhardt Jr. makes the chase. So, I’m thinking that Gordon finds a way to hang on to 10th place.
Change is bad, remember?
posted by Randy Capps at 10:35 PM
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